H-1B Barometer
A monthly 0-100 reading of U.S. employment-immigration conditions. A measurement of current conditions, not a prediction.
The H-1B Barometer reads 33 / 100 (Cold) for 2026-06, down 3 points versus last month, based on 2 of 4 components.
Sources: State Dept. Visa Bulletin, DOL OFLC, USCIS, FRED · About
Score history since 2008-02
- 1. 2017-04 Buy American Hire American EO
- 2. 2020-06 Proclamation 10052 entry suspension
- 3. 2025-09 Proclamation 10973 — $100K petition fee
- 4. 2026-02 Weighted H-1B selection rule effective
- 5. 2026-03 DOL prevailing-wage NPRM
A measurement of current conditions, not a prediction. Early months are built from fewer data sources (the fade-in rule in the methodology below); no value is interpolated or backfilled.
What moved this month
Each component is shown with its latest available data month — PERM and JOLTS publish on a lag.
-48.0 days/month · normalized 9/100 · data through 2026-06
Mean monthly movement of the EB-2/EB-3 Final Action dates for India, China, and all other countries. Retrogression counts as negative.
Source: U.S. State Department Visa Bulletin
501 days · normalized 5/100 · data through 2026-03
Average days DOL takes to decide a PERM case under Analyst Review. Inverted — longer waits lower the score.
Source: DOL Foreign Labor Application Gateway
34.9% · normalized 58/100 · data through 2026-06
Selected ÷ eligible registrations for the most recent cap year, held until USCIS publishes the next one.
Source: USCIS registration data
98k openings · normalized 40/100 · data through 2026-04
Job openings in the Information industry — a proxy for the hiring market H-1B candidates face.
Source: FRED series JTU5100JOL (BLS JOLTS)
Where do you stand?
Pick your employment-based category, country of chargeability, and priority date. Facts first, mood second — and no predicted dates, ever.
Methodology
The barometer is the equal-weight mean of up to four monthly components: Visa Bulletin movement (mean Final Action movement across the six EB-2/EB-3 cells for India, China, and all other countries; retrogression counts as negative; a category going Current is treated as a status change, not a movement number), PERM processing time(DOL's published Analyst Review average, inverted so longer waits lower the score), H-1B lottery selection rate (selected ÷ eligible registrations per USCIS, held forward between annual publications), and tech hiring (JOLTS Information-industry job openings, FRED series JTU5100JOL).
Each component is compared against its own full history — extremes are winsorized, then the month is expressed as a percentile rank from 0 to 100. A month's score is the rounded mean of the components that genuinely exist that month (at least two; the “fade-in” rule). Nothing is interpolated, backfilled, or extrapolated. The exact normalization internals are summarized here, not disclosed in full — the same transparency stance as our data overview.
Cadence: monthly, after the mid-month Visa Bulletin. Visa Bulletin history runs from January 2008 (the official archive does not serve five scattered months in 2009-2012, which stay missing); PERM processing-time snapshots run from March 2020; lottery data from the FY2021 cap season; JOLTS from December 2000. The FY2027 lottery row is a placeholder until USCIS publishes results under the weighted selection rule.
Rules as of June 11, 2026; effective for FY2027 (DHS weighted selection, eff. Feb 27 2026); subject to ongoing litigation.
Summary
As of 2026-06, the VisaSalaries H-1B Barometer reads 33 out of 100 (Cold), computed from 2 of 4 components. The barometer is a monthly composite index of U.S. employment-immigration conditions built from Visa Bulletin Final Action movement (EB-2/EB-3 for India, China, and all other countries), DOL PERM average processing time (inverted), the USCIS H-1B lottery selection rate, and JOLTS Information-industry job openings, each percentile-ranked against its own full history and averaged with equal weights. It measures current conditions and does not predict lottery outcomes, approval dates, or green-card timelines. Source: U.S. State Department, DOL OFLC, USCIS, and FRED data, aggregated and analyzed by VisaSalaries Research. https://visasalaries.com/about
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the H-1B Barometer a prediction?
No. It is a measurement of current conditions — how the system is behaving right now compared with its own history. It does not forecast lottery results, approval dates, or green-card timelines, and no component attempts to.
What goes into the H-1B Barometer score?
Up to four measurable components, equally weighted: monthly Visa Bulletin Final Action movement for EB-2 and EB-3 (India, China, and all other countries), the average PERM processing time published by DOL (inverted, since longer is worse), the H-1B lottery selection rate from USCIS registration data, and tech-sector job openings (JOLTS Information industry, FRED series JTU5100JOL). Each is percentile-ranked against its own full history, then averaged and rounded to a 0-100 score.
Why do early years use fewer components?
The sources start at different times: the Visa Bulletin history runs from 2008, JOLTS from 2000, but DOL's PERM processing-time page and USCIS registration data only exist from 2020. The composite uses whatever genuinely exists in a month (at least two components) and never interpolates or backfills missing data.
Does a high score improve my personal chances?
No. The barometer describes the overall climate, not any individual case. Your lottery outcome depends on the weighted-selection rules and your wage level; your green-card wait depends on your category, country, and priority date. The personal calculator on this page restates the published facts for your cell — it never predicts a date.
How often does the barometer update?
Monthly, after the mid-month Visa Bulletin is published. PERM processing times and JOLTS data lag by one to three months, so the newest months may be built from fewer components until those sources catch up.