H-1B Barometer, August 2026: Back to Cold at 42 - On Two of Four Signals
The VisaSalaries H-1B Barometer reads 42/100 (Cold) for August 2026, down 21 from July - on two of four components. The Visa Bulletin's average EB-2/EB-3 movement slowed to about +10 days/month, while PERM processing time and tech hiring publish on a lag. A measurement of current conditions, not a prediction.
Score: 42 / 100 — Cold (down 21 vs July 2026). Built from 2 of 4 components this month.
What the barometer is capturing this month is a system running slower, not faster. PERM now sits around 403 days — over a year just to clear a labor certification, before the I-140 and green-card queues that follow. When readers ask whether the H-1B-to-green-card path is "getting better," this is the unglamorous reality the barometer exists to surface: the first step is taking longer, even in a month where some visa-bulletin dates technically moved forward.
One month isn't a trend — the barometer is built to move slowly on purpose, and a single input shifting doesn't flip the picture. What it does is keep the discussion anchored to measured signals (processing times, labor-market data, bulletin movement) rather than headlines. If you're weighing an offer, a transfer, or when to kick off PERM, the honest use of this reading isn't to time anything — it's to set realistic expectations for how long each step actually takes right now.
Component movers
| Component | This month (raw) | Normalized (0-100) | Change vs last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Bulletin movement (EB-2/EB-3 Final Action) | +10.2 days/month | 26.3 | -42.0 pts |
| PERM processing time (inverted — longer is worse) | no data this month | - | - |
| H-1B lottery selection rate | 34.9% | 57.7 | +0.0 pts |
| Tech hiring (JOLTS Information job openings) | no data this month | - | - |
Full per-cell detail for this month's bulletin: Visa Bulletin August 2026
Policy events on the chart
- 2017-04: Buy American Hire American executive order (EO 13788)
- 2020-06: Proclamation 10052 suspends entry on several work visas
- 2025-09: Proclamation 10973 — $100,000 H-1B petition fee
- 2026-02: FY2027 wage-weighted H-1B selection rule takes effect (Feb 27)
- 2026-03: DOL prevailing-wage NPRM proposes raising all four wage levels (Mar 27)
Not a prediction / methodology
The H-1B Barometer is a measurement of current conditions, not a prediction. It is the equal-weight mean of up to four monthly components — Visa Bulletin Final Action movement (EB-2/EB-3 for India, China, and all other countries), PERM average processing time (inverted), the H-1B lottery selection rate (held forward between annual publications), and JOLTS Information-industry job openings — each percentile-ranked against its own full history after winsorizing extremes. Months with fewer sources use only what exists; nothing is interpolated or backfilled. Sources: U.S. State Department Visa Bulletin, DOL OFLC processing times, USCIS registration data, FRED series JTU5100JOL. It does not predict any approval, selection, or green-card date.
Full priority-date tables and history: visasalaries.com/bulletin