H-1B Lottery Odds Estimator
Estimate FY2027 weighted-selection odds by wage level from the historic filing distribution for your SOC occupation and metro.
The FY2027 H-1B lottery is a weighted random draw: a registration earns entries equal to its wage level (IV = 4 … I = 1). This tool estimates each level's selection probability as p_L = min(1, r · L / wbar), where wbar is the mean entries per beneficiary for your SOC and metro and r is the baseline selection rate. It is an estimate from past filings, not a guarantee.
Source: DOL OFLC Disclosure Data · Methodology
Rules as of June 3, 2026; effective for FY2027 (DHS weighted selection, eff. Feb 27 2026); subject to ongoing litigation.
Summary
Under the FY2027 DHS weighted selection rule (effective February 27, 2026), each cap-subject H-1B registration receives lottery entries equal to its OEWS wage level — four at Level IV down to one at Level I — and one weighted random draw is run across all entries. This estimator derives the mean entries per beneficiary (wbar) from the historical level distribution of DOL OFLC filings for a SOC occupation and metro, then reports each level's probability as p_L = min(1, r · L / wbar) for a user-adjustable baseline rate r (default 0.30). Because the true applicant pool and final rules are unknown, the result is a historical-distribution estimate rather than a guarantee. Source: U.S. Department of Labor OFLC Disclosure Data, analyzed by VisaSalaries Research. Methodology: https://visasalaries.com/methodology
Frequently Asked Questions
How are these H-1B lottery odds calculated?
From the historical wage-level distribution for a SOC and metro, we compute T = 1·n1 + 2·n2 + 3·n3 + 4·n4 (total weighted entries), the mean entries per beneficiary wbar = T / n_total, and each level's probability p_L = min(1, r · L / wbar), where r is the baseline selection rate. It is a historical-distribution estimate, not a guarantee.
What is the baseline selection rate r?
r is the overall share of registrations expected to be selected (default 0.30, and editable in the tool). It depends on how many registrations are submitted versus the cap, so the true value for FY2027 is unknown until the pool closes.
Why does a higher wage level improve my odds?
The DHS weighted draw gives a registration entries equal to its wage level — Level IV earns 4 entries, III earns 3, II earns 2, and I earns 1 — so higher levels hold more entries. Each unique beneficiary is still counted once; the multiplier only sets how many pool entries that beneficiary holds.
Is selection a tiered fill that takes Level IV first?
No. It is a single weighted RANDOM draw across every entry in the pool, not a sequential fill that exhausts Level IV before Level III. Higher levels simply have proportionally more entries in the same random draw.
Which petitions does the weighted selection apply to?
The FY2027 weighted selection applies only to cap-subject initial H-1B registrations. Extensions, employer transfers, and amendments are not cap-subject and are not part of the lottery.