H-1B Barometer, July 2026: A Warm 63 - On Two of Four Signals
The VisaSalaries H-1B Barometer reads 63/100 (Warm) for July 2026, up from June - but on only two of four components. A strong Visa Bulletin advance does most of the lifting, while PERM processing time and tech hiring sit out on a lag. A measurement of current conditions, not a prediction.
Score: 63 / 100 — Warm (up 30 vs June 2026). Built from 2 of 4 components this month.
The jump into Warm territory is real but narrow. This month's score rests on only two of the four components - the Visa Bulletin's movement and the held-forward lottery selection rate - because PERM processing time and tech-sector hiring publish on a lag and carry no current-month data. The Visa Bulletin's average movement across the EB-2 and EB-3 cells was strongly forward this month, and with just two signals in the average, that single advance does most of the lifting. The right way to read a month like this is as two fresh indicators pointing up, not as a broad, across-the-board improvement in conditions.
The two components sitting out are worth keeping in view. When they last reported, PERM processing time was near the slow end of its history and tech-sector openings were soft - both of which will pull the composite back toward the middle once they refresh into the current window. As always, the barometer describes where a handful of public indicators sit this month relative to their own history; it is not a forecast of any individual's selection, approval, or priority-date outcome. A Warm reading is a snapshot of the present, nothing more.
Component movers
| Component | This month (raw) | Normalized (0-100) | Change vs last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Bulletin movement (EB-2/EB-3 Final Action) | +55.2 days/month | 68.2 | +59.2 pts |
| PERM processing time (inverted — longer is worse) | no data this month | - | - |
| H-1B lottery selection rate | 34.9% | 57.8 | +0.0 pts |
| Tech hiring (JOLTS Information job openings) | no data this month | - | - |
Policy events on the chart
- 2017-04: Buy American Hire American executive order (EO 13788)
- 2020-06: Proclamation 10052 suspends entry on several work visas
- 2025-09: Proclamation 10973 — $100,000 H-1B petition fee
- 2026-02: FY2027 wage-weighted H-1B selection rule takes effect (Feb 27)
- 2026-03: DOL prevailing-wage NPRM proposes raising all four wage levels (Mar 27)
Not a prediction / methodology
The H-1B Barometer is a measurement of current conditions, not a prediction. It is the equal-weight mean of up to four monthly components — Visa Bulletin Final Action movement (EB-2/EB-3 for India, China, and all other countries), PERM average processing time (inverted), the H-1B lottery selection rate (held forward between annual publications), and JOLTS Information-industry job openings — each percentile-ranked against its own full history after winsorizing extremes. Months with fewer sources use only what exists; nothing is interpolated or backfilled. Sources: U.S. State Department Visa Bulletin, DOL OFLC processing times, USCIS registration data, FRED series JTU5100JOL. It does not predict any approval, selection, or green-card date.
Full priority-date tables and history: visasalaries.com/bulletin