H-1B Barometer, June 2026: A Cold 33 - The Series' First Issue
The VisaSalaries H-1B Barometer read 33/100 (Cold) for June 2026, on two of four components, with a Visa Bulletin retreat doing most of the pulling. Published retroactively in July 2026 as the series' first issue. A measurement of current conditions, not a prediction.
Score: 33 / 100 — Cold (down 3 vs May 2026). Built from 2 of 4 components this month.
Editor's note: This back-issue was published retroactively in July 2026 as the series' first issue. The June reading below is the June 2026 measurement as originally drafted in early June; nothing has been restated.
June 2026 opens this series at 33, a Cold reading. In plain terms: the public signals we track sat, on average, in the lower third of their own history that month. A Cold month is not a verdict on any individual case. Filings still get certified in Cold months and denials still happen in Hot ones. The score is a weather report for the overall environment, not a forecast for your petition.
One number is a starting point, not a trend. We are publishing this back-issue so the monthly series is complete from its first issue, and we will treat month-over-month moves with caution until several readings accumulate. For the current month's score and the component table behind it, the live gauge on the Barometer page is always the freshest view.
Component movers
| Component | This month (raw) | Normalized (0-100) | Change vs last month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Bulletin movement (EB-2/EB-3 Final Action) | -48.0 days/month | 9.0 | -5.1 pts |
| PERM processing time (inverted — longer is worse) | no data this month | - | - |
| H-1B lottery selection rate | 34.9% | 57.9 | +0.0 pts |
| Tech hiring (JOLTS Information job openings) | no data this month | - | - |
Policy events on the chart
- 2017-04: Buy American Hire American executive order (EO 13788)
- 2020-06: Proclamation 10052 suspends entry on several work visas
- 2025-09: Proclamation 10973 — $100,000 H-1B petition fee
- 2026-02: FY2027 wage-weighted H-1B selection rule takes effect (Feb 27)
- 2026-03: DOL prevailing-wage NPRM proposes raising all four wage levels (Mar 27)
Not a prediction / methodology
The H-1B Barometer is a measurement of current conditions, not a prediction. It is the equal-weight mean of up to four monthly components — Visa Bulletin Final Action movement (EB-2/EB-3 for India, China, and all other countries), PERM average processing time (inverted), the H-1B lottery selection rate (held forward between annual publications), and JOLTS Information-industry job openings — each percentile-ranked against its own full history after winsorizing extremes. Months with fewer sources use only what exists; nothing is interpolated or backfilled. This June reading was built from two of the four components — the Visa Bulletin and the held-forward lottery selection rate — because PERM processing time and tech-sector hiring publish on a lag and carried no current-month data. Sources: U.S. State Department Visa Bulletin, DOL OFLC processing times, USCIS registration data, FRED series JTU5100JOL. It does not predict any approval, selection, or green-card date.
Full priority-date tables and history: visasalaries.com/bulletin